中文摘要：

根据影响危险品道路运输路径选择的风险、经济及时间因素，构建了包含风险、经济及时间的广义运输时间函数。将出行者对路段的广义运行时间预测看作随机过程，对出行路径上节点的到达广义时间取期望值，利用一阶近似，建立了基于广义时间最短的动态路径选择模型。研究表明，在交通信息可获知条件下，只要给定起讫点对（Origin-Destination，简称OD）中起点的出发时间，就可通过基于广义时间最短的动态路径选择模型求解通过某一路径到达终点的期望时间，而最小期望时间所对应的路径即是危险品道路运输动态最短路径。

英文摘要：

This paper has made an analysis of the influential factors of hazardous material transportation, including risks, economic and time-consumption and establishes the route choice model for the hazardous material transportation. We have studied the reliability and convenience of the data that can be obtained from the above said transportation and taken up three of the factors as the key ones, that is, the traffic charge （V/ C）, population density and hazardous areas. As to the economic factors concerned, toll and fees of fuel should also be included. Thus, it can be supposed that there exists a linear relation between the generalized time and the above mentioned factors, along with the formula deduced to describe the given relation. The predictive path covered and the traveling time elapsed can be taken as different stochastic processes, with the expected generalized time more or less waving up and down. Then, the likely errors are submitted to the stochastic process N（0, σ）. By taking the expected arriving time of the path node with the first order approximation of Taylor series, a dynamic route choice model can thus be established. Then, the predictive generalized time of the next node can also be deduced from the total travel process plus the previous node＇ s predictive arrival time. Therefore, given the time originally elapsed, it is possible to deduce the expected time of arriving at its destination with the help of the time arrival and the dynamic travel information as well as the shortest dynamic path the transportation takes.