我国的能源瓶颈突出表现为结构性矛盾。笔者以能源经济学为理论支撑,从低碳经济发展对能源结构的要求角度,提出了社会经济发展、能源发展规划、环境等3个维度,分析了各个维度的构成要素,运用SPSS16.0对每个要素进行单样本T检验,确定了15个测评指标。运用层次分析法确定了各个指标的权重,构建了能源-经济-环境模型,并以此模型对2002年-2008年我国能源结构合理度进行了实证分析,发现此阶段我国能源结构合理度变化趋势呈“U”状,即先降后升;能源结构在满足社会经济发展需求上的得分呈上升趋势,而在能源发展规划执行力度、环境改善等方面的得分呈下降趋势。
The structural contradictions are mainly shown as the energy bottleneck in China. Based on theory of energy economics, this paper puts forward three dimensions which are social and economic development, energy development planning as well as environment, from the perspective of requirements of low-carbon economy to energy structure. By analyzing elements of the various dimensions, it i- dentifies fifteen measurement indexes by one-sample T test with SPSS16.0, and calculates the weight of each index with Analytical Hi- erarchy Process (AHP). Based on this, Energy-Economy-Environment (3E) model is built to empirically analyze sanity degree of en- ergy structure from 2002 to 2008, in China. It is found that the changing trend of sanity degree of energy structure shows "U" shape, first decreasing and then rising. The energy structure plays more and more important role in meeting social and economic development while the enforcement of energy development planning and environmental improvements is to be improved.