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中文摘要：
基于对数平均权重Divisia分解法,建立了CO2排放的分解模型,并以1994年为基年,对1999～2008年我国经济发展的规模效应（S）、结构效应（S）和技术效应（T）对CO2排放变化的贡献进行实证分析。研究结果表明：近年来我国CO2排放总量在不断增长;经济发展的规模效应（S）是增长的推动因素,技术效应（T）起抑制作用,结构效应（S）影响力甚微,规模效应（S）的拉动作用明显大于技术效应（T）的减排作用;技术效应（T）对CO2排放增长的抑制作用在减弱,减排的突破口在于经济发展的结构效应（S）。
英文摘要：
Economic development has close relationship with CO_2 emissions.It has the major effect on CO_2 emissions in three ways of scale,structural and technical effects.With Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia（LMD） method,a decomposition model of CO_2 emissions is built.Taking 1994 as the basic year,it analyzes empirically the contribution of scale,structural and technical effects to CO_2 emissions from 1999 to 2008.The conclusions are as follows： in the past few years,CO_2 emissions have been growing;the scale effect is the driving factor of CO_2 emissions increasing,while the technical effect is the inhibitor;the stimulus role of scale effect is significantly greater than the reduction one of technical effect,and structural effect has little influence;the role of technical effect in inhibiting CO_2 emissions from increasing is reducing,so structural effect of economic development is the breakthrough of reduction.
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