中文摘要：

运用通径分析明确了一次能源消费比例的相互关系及其与碳强度的直接与间接关系,在此基础上计算一次能源消费比例分别对碳强度和GDP的贡献,据此分析一次能源消费结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度。研究结论表明：煤炭消费比例是碳强度增长的主要推动因素,其他能源（水电、核电、风电等）消费比例、灰因素等是碳强度增长的主要抑制因素。依据一次能源消费结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度矩阵的结论,降低煤炭消费比例,提高其他能源（水电、核电、风电等）消费比例对降低碳强度的贡献最大,优化能源消费结构可以降低碳强度4.5722个百分点,对实现＂十二五＂规划碳强度目标的贡献潜力为26.9%。

英文摘要：

The optimization of energy structure is important to achieve carbon intensity targets.Here,we analyzed primary energy consumption change and carbon emission intensity,by defining the relationship between primary energy consumption and its direct and indirect influence on carbon intensity.We found that the proportion of coal consumption has an inhibiting effect on the reduction of carbon intensity,and the proportion of other energy（hydropower,nuclear power,wind power） or gray factor can help it.Using the ridge regression method we calculated the contribution of the proportion of primary energy consumption to carbon intensity and GDP,respectively.Results show that coefficient of elasticity the proportion of coal,oil,gas and other energy on carbon intensity is 0.1562,-0.077,-0.0913 and-0.3078,respectively,and on GDP is 2.22,1.385,0.752 and 1.243,respectively.According to a sensitivity matrix,it can reduce the carbon intensity by 0.2796%,0.4257% and 0.7059% to completely replace by 1% the proportion of coal consumption by oil,gas and other energy.In 2015,the proportion of gas consumption and other energy（hydropower,nuclear power,wind power） consumption will rise by 5.6% and 3.1%,and the change in the proportion of oil consumption will be little.Optimizing the primary energy consumption structure can lower carbon intensity by 4.5722%,and contribute 26.9% to achieving the carbon intensity target in the 12th Five-Year Plan.