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中文摘要：
在运用协整检验、成本分析等方法对生猪供给量的影响因素进行分析的基础上,综合运用了回归分析、专家经验分析、指数平滑、情景预测等预测和决策方法,对我国2010-2012年的生猪年度供给量进行了预测.预测结果表明,在不发生影响生猪供给的重大突发事件的情况下,2010-2012年我国生猪产量将呈逐年上升的趋势.
英文摘要：
In this paper,the main factors affecting the supply of live hogs was analyzed first with methods like cointegration test,cost analysis and so on.Then,by using various forecasting and decision making methods,including regression analysis,expert analysis,exponential smoothing method and scenario forecast,Chinese annual supply of live hogs from 2010 to 2012 was predicted.The results show that,if there were no major emergencies happened, Chinese supply of live hogs from 2010 to 2012 would be in a rising trend year by year.
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