提出了一个基于二维规则网格的SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)动态疾病传播模型,并用元胞自动机方法进行计算机模拟,考查该模型中感染概率、治愈概率、人群密度及人群的流动对疾病传播的影响,结果表明,系统的稳态感染比例随感染概率和人群密度的增加而增大,随治愈概率的增加而减小,同等条件下流动人群比静止人群更容易传播疾病,根据这些研究结论最后给出了对应的疾病预防和控制措施。
A susceptible-infected-susceptible(SIS) dynamic epidemic spreading model was proposed basing on two dimensional model,and the simulation was also performed basing on cellular automata method.Infection probability,cure probability,crowd density and the moving activity in this model were studied.The results showed that the steady infected ratio increased with the growth of infection probability and crowd density while decreased with the growth of cure probability.The epidemic was easier to spread in flowing crowd than in static crowd at the same situation.According to these results,some measures were proposed to prevent the spread of disease.