中文摘要：

为建立一种综合反映不可修复（老化）故障和可修复故障的油浸式变压器故障率模型，提出了通过搭建设备健康指数与设备期望寿命的关系，将健康指数作为参量引入到老化失效模型中，实现从老化发展和状态评估的角度共同表征故障率的新模型，即Arrhenius-Wjibull-HI模型。在算例分析中，提出当历史数据完整时，采用Levenberg-Marquardt法拟合获取新模型的参数；当历史数据缺失设备检测信息时，可结合非序贯蒙特卡罗法求解待拟参数的近似解。算例所获得的拟合结果表明了新模型具备表征实际故障率的能力。

英文摘要：

To establish a failure model for oil-immersed transformer to synthetically reflect unrepairable failure caused by permanent aging and repairable damage, it is proposed that through constructing the relation between equipment health index and equipment expected lifecycle, the health index （HI） is regarded a parameter to be led into aging failure model to built a new model, i.e., the Arrhenius-Weibull-HI model, to characterize failure rate in the angle of aging development and state estimation. In the analysis on example. It is put forward that when historical data is complete, parameters of the Arrhenius-Weibull-HI model can be fitted by Levenberg- Marquardt method; when the equipment inspection information is not included in historical data, the approximate solution of parameters to be fitted can be obtained by non-sequential Monte Carlo method. The fitting results from calculation example show that the proposed model possesses the ability to characterize actual failure rate.