变压器在运行过程中,绝缘油中会有溶解气体产生。由经验可知,油中气体的含量可反映变压器健康状态,而产气速率则反映了该状态下器身内部潜伏性故障的发展程度。据此原理,建立适用于电力系统风险评估的变压器时变停运模型。模型首先根据气体含量进行变压器状态划分,并考虑实时修复的影响建立多状态马尔科夫模型,得出故障率基值。同时,基于产气速率建立时变停运指数模型,既体现变压器实时运行特性,又准确反映了变压器内部潜伏性故障的发展情况。通过算例分析对模型进行了验证,该模型为系统风险评估提供了基础。
Dissolved gases come into being in the insulating oil during the operation of power transformers. By experience, it is known that the health state of transformers can be deduced from the content of the dissolved gasses and the development of the internal latent fault in that state can be estimated by the generating rate of the gasses. Based on this knowledge, the time-varying outage model for risk assessment of transformers was built. The transformer state was firstly identified by the quantity of the dissolved gas. Thus the multi-state Markov model was set up considering the maintenances to get the basic failure rate. Meanwhile, the time-varying exponential outage model was established based on the gas generating rate which reflects the operating characteristics as well as the development of the latent fault. The model is validated by case studies and provides reference foundation for the device risk assessment.