本文运用中国省级2001--2010年的面板数据,在人口老龄化的框架下考察了地方公共政策的结构效应。研究表明:人口老龄化对地方公共支出政策的产业结构调整功能产生一定的负效应,这种效应已经在第一产业和第二产业中突显出来;政府教育支出与医疗卫生投入的不足限制了人力资本存量的增加,使人口老龄化的负效应更为显著;现有的中国公共收入政策环境也在深刻地影响着三次产业的发展,税负水平与以流转税为主体的税制结构抑制了中国三次产业的结构转变与内在质量的提升。
Using the Chinese provincial panel data from 2001 to 2010, this paper analyzed the structur al effects of local public policy in the framework of population aging. Research results showed that popula tion aging generated some certain negative effects to local industrial restructuring function of public policy, which appeared in the primary industry and second industry. Government spending on education and health care investment was low, which limited the human capital stock increased, so that the negative effect of population aging was more significant. In addition, Chinese public revenue environment deeply affected the development of three industries, tax levels and taking turnover tax, while the main tax structure influ enced the development of structural changes and internal quality improvement.