本文首先确定了工业资本存量估计的四个核心指标,在永续盘存法的基础上重新测算了中国工业部门全国和省际的资本存量,根据年鉴公布的数据,利用调整过的资本回报率的一般公式对中国工业部门全国和省际资本回报率进行了测算,结果显示中国工业资本回报率在1978~2006年间总体上呈现“U”型的变动模式,1978~1998年总体上处于下降的趋势,1998年之后呈现上升的趋势,同时省际间的资本回报率呈现西部、中部、东北和东部区域的递进特征,但从长期来看省际间的工业资本回报率的差距总体上逐渐缩小,针对这些经济现象,文章对其进行了探索性的理论分析。
This paper determines four main indicators and estimates China's industrial capital stock by perpetual inventory method. On the basis of these estimate data and data in yearbooks, the paper measures national and provincial capital return of China's industry by the adjusted general formula. The change pattern of China's industrial capital return takes on "U" and the disparity of interprovincial industrial capital return was diminishing from 1978 to 2006. According to these phenomena, the paper proposes several propositions and put forward some theoretical explorations.