中文摘要：

以县市区为研究单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,利用ESDA方法和空间计量模型,借助Arc GIS10.0和Geo Da095i的空间分析功能,对安徽省1996—2012年区域经济增长的收敛趋势进行了计量分析。结果表明：研究时段内,不考虑空间相互作用的情况下,安徽省区域经济增长不存在收敛趋势,但OLS残差值和空间自相关模型证明安徽区域经济增长过程中存在空间依赖现象。为此,引入空间误差模型与空间滞后模型进一步开展收敛研究,证明在考虑空间因素后,安徽省区域经济增长存在绝对β收敛的趋势,而地区间经济联系强度和隶属度的分析具体表达了县市区间的空间联系与溢出效应对缩小区域经济差距的影响。对此,应通过加强县市区间的联系与合作,调整优化区域发展格局,加速安徽省区域经济收敛进程。

英文摘要：

The aim of this paper is to study the trend convergence of Anhui＇s regional economic growth over 1996-2012 period by taking counties, cities or regions as the research unit and the GDP per capita as measure indicators, using ESDA and spatial econometric modle, applying Arc GIS10.0 and Geoda095 i spatial analysis technique. The results show that：Without considering the spatial interaction, it does not find the trend convergence of Anhui＇s regional economic growth.However, it finds evidence of spatial dependence in the process of regional economic growth in Anhui by using OLS residual and spatial autocorrelation model. Then the spatial error model and spatial lag model prove the existence of absolute β- convergence of regional economic growth in Anhui by considering the spatial factors. What＇s more, The model of strength and subjection degree of regional economic futher indicate that spatial spillover effects between adjacent counties, cities or regions can reduce the economic gap between regions. Therefore the governments can create conditions to strengthen the interaction between counties, cities or regions, adjust and optimize the pattern of regional development, accelerate the convergence process of regional economy in Anhui Province.