中文摘要：

将实物期权理论引入到对技术创新政策的价值评估中,通过分析技术创新政策带给企业的不同机会,以及政策的附加限制可能产生的期权破坏,建立了实物期权评估政策价值的总体框架,并用二叉树模型验证了政策价值的存在,弥补了传统价值评估方法无法计算政策所带来的机会价值的不足。建议企业应善于识别并利用政策创造的不同期权,根据期权价值的大小调整自己的技术创新决策。

英文摘要：

In this paper real options theory is introduced to evaluate the technology innovation policies. From this view, we analyze different opportunities for the enterprises that the technology innovations policies created, and then discuss how to identify the different real options from these opportunities, as well as options destroyed arise from policy restrictions. This paper establishes a framework of real option for policies evaluation, also used binary tree （one of pricing methods of real option） to calculate it, which makes up for the lack of traditional valuation methods not to calculate the value of the policy. Finally, we point out that enterprises should be good to identify and manage the different options that policies created, then adjust their scheme of technology innovation.