中文摘要：

针对我国股票市场发展中的股权分置改革，建立了市盈率模型，运用市盈率和上证指数的关系作线性回归分析，预测近几年市盈率的发展趋势，得出了上证指数的波动范围。

英文摘要：

Equity division reform aimed at full circulation of the equity, which is a important reform in China＇s stock market. During the reform there are many uncertain factor, people have their own views about its possible effect on general trend of market development. This paper sets up a P/E ratio model, then makes linear regression analysis on P/E ratio with Shanghai stock index. Then we can calculate the wave range of Shanghai stock index during equity division reform.