基于“生命周期”理论,对区域创新型科技人才的成长过程进行分析,构建区域创新型科技人才成长的GERT网络模型.并以某区域创新型科技人才成长为研究对象设计参数,进行仿真求解,得出区域创新型科技人才成长周期、实现概率等相关特征。在所构建的创新型科技人才成长GERT网络模型基础上,对人才成长的政府扶持政策进行政策实验,对比政府在创新型科技人才成长的各阶段给予支持时的作用效果,从而得到政策的最佳扶持点和程度:即在创新型科技人才“种子”的萌芽期进行政策扶持,可以提高人才培养的成功率;政策支持发展期的创新型科技人才,则可以缩短培养周期。并据此提出相关政策建议。
Based on the "life cycle" theory and some analyses of the growth process of regional technology innova- tion talents, the results used to des pared with a GERT model is built up to describe the growth of regional technology innovation talents, and to get that probability and cycle time of the model using the data in an area. On this basis, the model is also ign the some government support programs in various stages of the growth, and to calculate the results. Com- programs and the results, we get the best supporting degree and time in the talents growth, and find that when technology innovation talents are supported in their initial stage of growth, the personnel training success rate of the personnel training increases. Meantime the government that supports the development period of innovative talents can shorten training cycle. Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding measures for the innovative technolo- gy talents training