基于全国粮食主产区1980、1990、1996、2000和2008年县域数据,通过分析其农村经济发展的时空差异演进特征,对粮食主产区农村经济增长的政策影响进行了评价。结果显示:1980年以来粮食主产区农村经济增长区域差异整体趋于收敛,粮食主产区与非粮食主产区之间的差异在1980—1990年有所降低,1990年之后逐年增大,表现出粮食主产区农村经济的相对低谷性。1996—2008年,粮食主产区第一产业比重由38.6%降为19.9%,农业劳动力比重由73.4%减至57%,而乡村人口比重则由85.7%缓慢降至82.3%。粮食主产区总体发展缓慢的根源在于耕地保护制度、粮食生产约束等政策性限制对该区域发展权益的剥夺,而相关政策对于解决其农村发展深层次矛盾与问题存在局限性,未能处理好国家、地方政府、农户三者的利益关系,导致粮食主产区难以发挥农业产量高和质量优的比较优势和产业结构调整带来的后发优势,从而陷入增产不增收的恶性循环。
Based on data collected from major grain producing area of China over 5 time periods(1980,1990,1996,2000 and 2008),influence mechanism of China's policy on its economic growth has been in-depth studied by analyzing the temporal-spatial evolvement of regional disparities of rural economic development on county scale.The results are as follows.The major grain producing area could be demonstrated as economic backward class in that there has been conditional convergence of regional disparity for major grain producing area as a whole since 1980,while between major grain producing area and food sales area disparity became larger and larger after 1990,even though there saw a narrower gap in rural economic development from 1980 to 1990.The proportion of the primary industry decreased from 38.6% to 19.9% and that of agricultural labor force decreased from 73.4% to 57% and rural population decreased from 85.7% to 82.3% during 1996-2008.Interesting insights are obtained into the root of stagnation of economic development in major grain producing.On the one hand,it suggests that the national strategic limitation to arable land protection and food security deprives of its right to develop economy,on the other hand,the current policy which hardly solves any underlying problem challenging its economic growth is considered.As the interests relationship in the major grain producing area between central government,local government and rural household has not been coordinated,it fails to increase rural household income together with grain yield by playing to the best its comparative advantage of high agricultural yield and good quality and late-developing advantage out of industrial structure adjustment.It is very important to establish a mechanism and policies for innovation to guarantee rural economic development.