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中文摘要：
基于信息扩散理论评估模型,选用降水距平百分率和标准化降水指数作为干旱灾害评估指数,对云南省楚雄市长期和近5年的干旱风险率进行评估。评估结果是：从长期来看,楚雄市发生干旱灾害的风险率约为30%,干旱灾害频率较高而强度不大,但近5年发生干旱灾害的风险率为77%,重旱以上风险率达到20%,干旱灾害频率很高且强度较大,与实际情况比较吻合,表明信息扩散理论评估模型能有效揭示极端旱灾情况下的风险率变化规律,可应用于变化环境下干旱灾害风险评估。
英文摘要：
Based on the Information Diffusion Theory Risk Assessment Model,the long-term drought risk rates and those in the past 5years in Chuxiong City of Yunnan Province are assessed by adopting the percentage of precipitation anomaly and standardized precipitation index.The result shows that the drought disaster risk rate is about 30%in a long history,and the frequency of droughts is a little high but drought severity is not too serious.The drought disaster risk rate is about 77% and serious drought disaster risk rate reaches 20%in the past 5years,and the frequency of drought is high and the drought severity is serious.It is in line with the actual drought situation.The information diffusion theory assessment model can effectively reveal the change of the risk rate in extreme drought disaster situations,and this model can be used for drought disaster risk assessment under changing environments.
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