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中文摘要：
根据“五普”和“六普”资料，人口总和生育率显著低于世代更替水平，这表明中国人口进入了低生育水平发展阶段。关于这一问题的合理解释是除了计划生育政策影响外，农村家庭生育决策的变化可能是内生的重要影响因素。基于生育决策模型及实证分析，得出这样的结论：在土地量保持不变的条件下，农村居民家庭的生育决策主要取决于收入水平和抚养子女的成本。农村居民家庭可能会依据“量质权衡”减少生育子女，这可能是导致中国人口生育水平下降的根本原因。
英文摘要：
The total fertility rate is significantly lower than generational replacement level according to the fifth census and the sixth census. This shows that China has entered a period of population development of low fertility level. Reasonable explanation for this phenomenon is that in addition to the impact of the family planning policy, changes in rural family fertility decision - making may be an important endogenous factors. Based on the model of fertility decision - making and empirical analysis, we concluded that the fertility decision - making of rural family is mainly determined by the income and the cost of raising children with a fixed land. Therefore, the rural family maybe reduce number of births according to the trade - off between quality and quantity, which is maybe main causes of the level of fertility decline in China.
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