本文引入修正的两期世代交叠模型,根据中国东部、西部、中部与东北的区域划分,结合6种情景模拟,研究确定了15%养老保险最优缴费率水平,从而为城镇企业缴费率的动态调整优化提供了福利经济效率标准.基于第六次人口普查数据,构建了城镇社会统筹养老金精算平衡模型,设计了企业缴费率动态调整优化路径.这一调整路径可以实现企业缴费率向15%福利最大化标准渐进收敛,能够达到养老保险制度内部效率与外部效率的统一.
This paper studied and identified 15% optimal contribution rate level of pension insurance, introducing the modified two overlapping generations model in accordance with the regional division of China and combining six kinds of scene simulation. It provides the welfare economic efficiency standard for the dynamic adjustment and optimization to urban enterprise contribution rate. Based on the sixth national census data, the urban social pooling pension actuarial balance model was established, and the dynamic adjustment and optimization path of enterprise contribution rate was also designed. This path will realize the goal that the adjustment and optimization of enterprise contribution rate can be the asymptotic convergence to 15% welfare maximization criterion, and achieve the internal efficiency and external efficiency of pension insurance system.