中文摘要：

本文计算了三峡库区2001—2013年的适度人口，结合适度人口评价的3个指标体系，即生态、土地资源、经济，设计了现状延续导向、生态环境保护导向、社会经济发展导向和协调平衡发展导向4种发展情景，通过情景模拟、GIS—ArcMap空间分析等方法，预测了三峡库区2021年的常住人口以及4种情景下的子承载适度人口和综合适度人口，比较预测的适度人口和常住人口，结果表明：未来三峡库区各区县适度人口和常住人口发展并不一致，存在巨大的差距，人口赤字和盈余并存，对待三峡库区的人口问题各地区应该认清自身发展的短板。找到适合的发展路径。

英文摘要：

This paper evaluate the optimum population of the Three forges Reservoir area from 2001 to 2013, and procasts the optimum population of land carting and the Comprehensive optimum population in 2021 repectively stimulating 4 development scenarios including satus quo maintenance orientation, ecological resource protection orientation, socioeconomic development orientation and coordination balanced development orientation in terms of the three indicator systems of optimum population evaluation, i.e,, ecology, land resources and economy. The findings show that the permenent inhabitants size differs from the optimum populaiton in the area and some districts may boast of population surplus while some others may have deficit in population. Each district of the area need find out the right way for social economic development considering the specific problems of population, social economic development and environment protection.