中文摘要：

针对稀土应用、替代技术并存且具有不确定性特点,从两种技术以及不确定性影响需求角度出发,构建技术不确定下稀土资源最优耗竭模型,考察两种技术的不确定性对稀土最优开采规模和最优耗竭时间的影响。研究发现稀土应用、替代技术的不确定性对稀土最优耗竭的影响相反。应用技术进步出现可能性越大,开采前期企业会减少稀土开采量,后期会增加稀土开采量,总体上会延长稀土资源耗竭时间;而替代技术进步出现可能性越大,开采前期企业稀土开采量会增加,后期稀土开采量会减少,总体上会缩短稀土资源耗竭时间。政策建议如下：技术不确定性条件下,稀土资源最优耗竭速度取决于应用技术和替代技术出现的相对概率高低,替代技术出现概率高时,提前耗竭可以实现资源价值最大化;为了发挥我国稀土资源优势,政府在关注稀土替代技术进步的同时,要重点提高稀土应用技术出现的概率;稀土开采速度与稀土初始储量正相关,建议轻稀土的开采速度可以适度高于重稀土。

英文摘要：

Both the technical innovations of application and alternative and their uncertainty emerge in rare earth industry. Given the fact that both the technology progress and their uncertainty affect the demand of rare earth,we established the optimal depletion model to investigate the impacts of uncertainty of technical innovation on the optimal exhaustion path（including extraction quantity and depletion time）. We find that the uncertainty of application technology and alternative technology progress function in different ways. The higher the possibility of the application technology progress is,the fewer the exploitation quantity of rare earth in pre-exploitation phase,and the more the quantity in later phase. The higher possibility of application innovation tends to lengthen the depletion time of rare earth resources as a whole. The higher the probability of the alternative technology is,the more the quantity of rare earth in pre-exploitation phase,and the fewer the exploitation in later phase. The uncertainty of substitution technology innovation tends to shorten the depletion time as a whole. The policy implications are as follows. Under the condition of uncertainty,the optimal depletion rate of rare earth depends on the relative magnitude of the possibility of application and alternative technology innovation. When the substitution technology is more likely to occur,we are supposed to shorten the depletion time to maximize the economic value of rare earth. For the sake of the resource endowment of rare earth in China,we suggest that we take measures to enhance the possibility of the application technology innovation. The optimal extraction rate of heavy rare earth is supposed to be higher than the light rare earth due to the different original reserve.