中文摘要：

蒙特卡洛法是事故再现不确定分析的一种重要方法。为了研究通过较少仿真次数即可获得理想分析结果的方法,基于蒙特卡洛误差估计理论,提出事故再现不确定分析蒙特卡洛法的样本容量选取问题。根据事故再现结果的标准差及所需控制误差确定样本容量,进而给出确定事故再现结果标准差的微分法和试算法等2种方法。最后用3个数值算例与一例车-车碰撞试验,验证所提出的方法。结果表明：利用所提出方法确定样本容量后,可以将计算结果的误差控制在规定范围内。

英文摘要：

Monte Carlo method has been shown to be a powerful tool for evaluating uncertainty of values calculated during the analysis of vehicle accident.In order to obtain the reasonable uncertainty analysis results with less simulation times,according to Monte Carlo error theory,a method for estimating sample size was proposed.The size was estimated on the basis of both the standard deviation of accident reconstruction results and the controlled error of the accident reconstruction results.Further more,two methods,differentiation method and trial method,for confirming the standard deviation of the accident results were given.Finally,three testing functions and a real vehicle-vehicle impact case were given.The results show that the error of results can be controlled through the proposed method.