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城市居民生活水价测算的回归分析

ISSN号：1673-5196
期刊名称：兰州理工大学学报
时间：0
页码：121-125
分类：TU991.6[建筑科学—市政工程]
作者机构：[1]苏州科技学院环境科学与工程学院,江苏苏州215011, [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100044, [3]同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200092
相关基金：国家自然科学基金（51109153）;国家自然科学基金重点项目（40830637）; 住建部科技项目（2010-K7-3）; 江苏省住建厅科技示范项目（201006100005）
相关项目：社会水循环系统演化机制与过程模拟研究——以海河流域为例

作者：李翠梅|王建华|王浩|刘遂庆|LI Cui-mei1,2,WANG Jian-hua1,WANG Hao1,LIU Sui-qin|2.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydraulic|3.College of Environment Science and Engineering,T|

关键词：水价, 测算, 回归分析, 边际成本, water price, forecasting, regressive analysis, marginal cost

中文摘要：

国内外学术界普遍关注的是水价测算模型及其参数估计的研究,即研究水价预测模型及应用,但鲜于对预测后的水价进行回归分析,造成调整后的水价组成不明,无法为水费合理分配提供科学依据.依据长期边际成本原理,通过分析苏州市1997—2008年单位供水可变成本与固定成本实际数据,测算2010年苏州市居民生活水价,并对预测后的水价进行回归分析.研究表明：在样本数据准确的基础上,通过回归分析能够正确揭示一定时期的水价及其组成,为城市水价收取与调整、水费管理与分配提供新的依据,对大力推进区域水资源可持续发展有着深远的实际和理论意义.

英文摘要：

The investigation of water price forecasting model and its parameter estimate was generally concerned by the academic circles at home and abroad.Namely,they were concerned in the investigation of water price forecasting model and its application;which were confined only to the regressive analysis of the water price forecasted,resulting in an unclear composition of the water price regulated and,therefore,the scientific basis for reasonable allocation of the water charges could not be provided.The living water price of Suzhou city＇s residents in 2010 was forecasted according to the long-term marginal cost principle and the analysis of the actual data of variable costs and fixed costs of unit water supply in Suzhou city during the years of 1997 through 2008 and the regressive analysis of the water price forecasted was performed,also.It was shown by the investigation that on the basis of accurate sampled data and by means of regressive analysis,the water price and its composition in a certain period of time could correctly be revealed,providing a new basis for the urban water charges gathering and regulating as well as the water charge management and allocation.The investigation in this paper has a deep practical and theoretical meaning for the retainable development of regional water resources utilization.

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