中文摘要：

本文构建了一个包含农业部门、非农业部门和政府部门的多部门模型,通过反事实分析考察了我国产业结构变迁和经济增长的动力。量化分析的结果表明,农业部门全要素生产率上升是我国产业结构变迁的重要原因,非农业部门全要素生产率上升、资本深化和财政支出扩张对我国产业结构变迁的贡献力度较小。内生性偏好变化等需求侧因素以及市场化改革推动的劳动力市场扭曲下降对我国产业结构变迁的作用不容忽视。全要素生产率上升、资本深化和财政支出扩张都是我国经济增长的重要原因。农业部门全要素生产率上升和非农业部门资本深化是1978—1994年我国经济增长的最主要原因;非农业部门资本深化和非农业部门全要素生产率提高是1995—2012年我国经济增长的最主要原因。通过分区间的对比研究发现,资本深化对我国经济增长的贡献度在上升,全要素生产率对我国经济增长的贡献度在下降。

英文摘要：

This paper presents a multi-sector model involving agriculture sector, non-agriculture sector and government sector, and explores the driving force of China＇ s structure change and economic growth through counter-factual analysis. Quantitative analysis shows that total factor productivity （TFP） in agriculture is the most important factor in explaining China＇ s structure change. Contributions of TFP in the non-agriculture sector, capital deepening and government expenditure to China＇ s structure change are relatively small. Endogenous preference and the declining of labor market distortion driven by marketization may also play important roles in China＇ s structure change. TFP, capital deepening and government expenditure are the main driving forces for China＇s economic growth. TFP in agriculture sector and capital deepening in non-agriculture sector are the main reasons for China＇ s economic growth during 1978 to 1994. Capital deepening and TPF in non-agriculture sector are the main reasons for China＇s economic growth during 1995 to 2012. Through comparison analysis, it finds out that the contribution of capital deepening to China＇s economic growth is increasing, whereas the contribution of TPF to China＇s economic growth is increasing.