研究目标:根据最新的统计数据测算我国的资本存量。研究方法:根据我国1978~2016年的相关数据,利用永续盘存法进行测算。研究发现:本文的测算的资本存量要略小于现有文献的结果;我国的资本产出比正处于快速上升阶段。研究创新:使用最新统计数据将资本构成进一步细化为十个大类,分别考虑了每类资本的初始资本存量、折旧率、资本形成额和价格指数,计算得到1978~2016年各类资本存量;在应用几何折旧法时,将折旧率拆解为固定折旧率与可变折旧率两部分,其中可变折旧率与经济增长率正相关,更加贴近实际情况。研究价值:在对已有研究进行深入分析的基础上,采用更为精细的方法和更贴近现实的假设,应用最新的数据,重新估算中国资本存量,得出的研究结果相比过去的研究更加可靠。研究结果对今后的基础研究具有重要借鉴意义。
Research Objectives: According to the latest statistical data to estimate China's capital stock. Research Methods: According to China's 1978~2016 relevant data , the method of perpetual inventory is used for estimation. Research Findings: The result of this paper is slightly smaller than the result of the existing literature; China's capital output ratio is in the rapid rise stage. Research Innovations: Using the latest statistical data to further refine the capital composition into ten categories, respectively, consider the initial capital of each type of capital Stock, depreciation rate, capital formation, price index, and calculate each types of capital stock from 1978 to 2016; In the application of geometric depreciation meth- od, the depreciation rate is divided into fixed depreciation rate and variable depreciation rate of two parts, including variable depreciation rate and economic growth rate is positively re- lated, more close to the actual situation. Research Value: On the basis of further research on the existing research, using more sophisticated methods, more realistic assumptions and the latest data, re-estimate the Chinese capital stock, and the result of the study is more re- liable than the past. The research results have important reference significance for the future basic research.