在对山东省1990-2010年旅游生态足迹进行量化测度的基础上,采用时间序列平稳性检验、协整及格兰杰因果检验,通过构建向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数对旅游环境承载力与旅游经济增长的动态关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,旅游环境承载力与旅游经济增长之间存在唯一的协整关系和双向因果关系,脉冲响应结果显示旅游环境承载力对旅游经济增长产生负向响应,且程度持续减弱,而旅游经济增长对旅游环境承载力产生正向响应,也呈持续减弱态势。
Based on the measurement of tourism ecological footprint in Shandong from 1990 to 2010, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationships between tourism environmental carrying capacity and tourism economic growth by using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test, cointegration and causality test, and con- structing vector auto-regression model and impulse response function of time series data. The result shows that there are only cointegration relations and two-way causal relationship between tourism environmental carrying capacity and tourism economic growth. The result of impulse response function implies that the tourism environmental carrying capacity produces a negative response to tourism economy on the one hand, while tourism economic growth produces a positive response to tourism environmental carrying capacity on the other hand, but thev are all showin~ ~ enntin,locl lron~n,~ t~,~A