中文摘要：

本文利用电力产业链20种产品增长率数据进行二项分布检验，建立与GDP增长率序列的差分VAR模型，实施协整检验。结果证实20种产品的波动具有一定系统性，产业链与宏观经济波动存在逆向长期均衡，它们分别对均衡偏离进行同进同退的短期调整。这反映了中国经济的传统增长方式面临现实约束——增长方式低效率本身，产业链大起大落源于均衡关系的波动和调整方式。目前，产业链高速增长趋势的转折在即。

英文摘要：

Using production rate data of twenty products of electricity industry chain （EIC）, the tests based on binomial distribution and the analysis of reduceddimension and co-integration have been done. The results show that the recurrent fluctuation of electricity industry chain manifests systematic and that there is a converse co-integration relationship between EIC and GDP, and their instant adjustments towards the equilibrium in the long run are in the same direction. Such relationships, that make EIC fluctuates seriously in the short run and in the long run, evolve because there are the hard restrictions on macroeconomy and EIC. The turning point of the recent expansion of EIC is coming.