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中文摘要：
净雨预报误差、洪水预报误差是当前水库实行预报调度的重要风险来源，影响水库综合效益的充分发挥．将净雨预报误差及洪水预报误差作为水库预报系统的荷载，借用可靠度理论分析了洪水预报的可靠性，先采用MonteCarlo直接法分析了大伙房水库净雨预报、洪水预报的单失效模式的可靠性，再分析了不同系统功能函数形式对洪水预报系统失效模式可靠性的影响，在选定系统功能函数的情况下，由MonteCarlo重要抽样的改进方法对系统失效可靠性进行了计算，所得结果可为进一步提高预报误差水平提供理论依据．
英文摘要：
Flood forecasting errors and net rainfall forecasting errors are important risk source for current forecast dispatching of reservoirs, and affect fulfilling the integrated benefit of reservoir fully. Taking the flood forecasting errors and net rainfall forecasting errors as the loads of forecasting system for reservoirs, the reliability of flood forecasting system is analyzed based on the reliability theory, the reliability indices of single failure mode of net rainfall forecasting and flood forecasting of Dahuofang reservoir are obtained based on Monte Carlo simple method at first~ then the impact of different types of performance function on the system reliability index of flood forecasting is analyzed~ and the system reliability index of flood fore- casting is presented in the determinative performance function condition based on the adaptive methods of importance sampling method, including adaptive first order reliability method and adaptive second order re- liability method. The results obtained in this paper could give theoretical basis for improving the level of flood forecasting.
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