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中文摘要：
本文结合考虑土地利用/覆被变化的流域水文模型（WHMLUCC）和Palmer干旱指数PDSI模拟干旱事件的发展过程，从成因途径提出基于WHMLUCC模型和Palmer干旱指数的非一致性干旱概率计算方法，并以无定河流域为例，推求不同情景变化环境下的干旱概率分布规律，进一步结合干旱等级标准计算不同等级干旱事件发生的概率，为该流域干旱预测和干旱规划提供科学依据。研究结果表明：（1）通过干旱概率计算与分析可知，气候条件对干旱影响较为突出，与此同时，在过去气候条件下土地利用面积的变化对干旱影响明显，而在现状气候条件下土地利用面积的变化对干旱的影响较弱；（2）在无定河流域的5种情景中，过去气候条件下情景2的土地利用情况有利于当地极端干旱形势的缓解，现状气候条件下各个情景的干旱形势较为一致；（3）通过成因分析，无定河流域干旱与气候变化和土地利用状况密不可分。
英文摘要：
As a major natural disaster in China, drought is a restricting factor on the social and economic development. In the article, drought development process is simulated based on WHMLUCC model and Palmer drought severity index. A probability calculation method is proposed based on WHMLUCC model by the way of causes to inquire into the drought probability distribution on changing environment, and the drought event probability under different grade （such as non, light, medium, heavy and specially drought） is given, which could provide a scientific basis for drought forecasting and planning in the river basin. The results show that （1） the drought probability distribution shows a severe impact of climatic conditions on drought events, and LUCC has significant effects on drought on past climate condition, and LUCC has weak effects on present climate conditions;（2） comparing 5 scenarios, scenario 2 is beneficial to alleviate extreme drought, and the drought situation is relatively consistent on present climate condition, and （3） through cause analysis, it is known that the agricultural drought is closely related to climate change and the land use and land cover change in the Wuding River basin.
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