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中文摘要：
洪水预报已成为提高水库洪水资源利用效率的必要手段,然而由于水文系统不确定性因素的存在,洪水预报误差不可避免.洪水预报误差极大影响水库预报调度成败,并且针对具体水库洪水预报误差通常会偏离正态分布,对洪水预报误差分布规律进行推求意义重大.当前,作为推求洪水预报误差分布规律的有力方法——最大熵原理正在广泛使用,但是对洪水预报误差分布规律推求问题本身和最大熵原理方法的认识仍存在局限.对洪水预报误差分布规律推求问题本质及最大熵原理适用理由做了进一步说明,三峡水库汛期洪水预报相对误差分布规律推求的实例研究表明,最大熵原理在其应用中是可行且有效的,值得进一步推广应用.
英文摘要：
Flood forecasting is becoming an essential tool for improving the utilization ratio of flood resources of reservoirs;since the uncertainty factors exist in the hydrology systems,the flood forecasting error is inevitable.The flood forecasting error affects the success or failure of reservoir＇s forecasting operation greatly;and as far as certain reservoir is concerned;the flood forecasting errors always deviate the normal distribution;therefore the study of rule of flood forecasting error is meaningful.Nowadays,the much powerful method for the derivation of distribution of flood forecasting error,the principle of maximum entropy,is widely applied;but the limits still exist in the problem of derivation of distribution of flood forecasting error and the cognition of maximum entropy;the further description for the limits is discussed in this paper;the case study of relative flood forecasting error of Three Gorges Reservoir has shown the feasibility and validity of maximum entropy,so as to popularize its applications.
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