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中文摘要：
为了探讨未来太湖水位对气候变化及人类活动的响应,基于情景分析技术,利用分布式水文模型VIC,水动力学模型ISIS,并结合区域气候模式PRECIS,对太湖水位进行水文-水动力学模拟。结果表明：未来时期（2021—2050年）,太湖流域平原区下垫面不透水面积增加显著,水田、旱地和水面的面积均呈减少趋势;太湖汛期最高水位和平均水位较基准期（1961—1990年）均显著升高,未来诱发同量级太湖最高水位的暴雨重现期将显著减小,太湖流域未来大洪水的发生可能更趋频繁。
英文摘要：
In the context of global warming and intensive urbanization, the flood characteristics in the Tai- hu Basin have been experiencing and will keep changing greatly. By adopting the scenario analysis tech- nique, the response of water level of the Taihu Lake to future climate change and human activities is simulated by using the distributed hydrological model VIC coupled with the hydraulic model ISIS, while the future climate scenarios are generated by the regional climate model PRECIS. The results show that there is a significant increasing trend of impervious surface area, wlhile other types of land cover show decreasing trends during 2021--2050. Furthermore, the maximum and mean flood water levels under future scenarios （2021--2050） will be greater than that under the baseline scenario （1961--1990）, and the return periods of storm resulting in the same flood water level will reduce remarkably, implying more frequent occurrence of big floods in the future. These facts arc of certain guiding significance in future flood control and waterlogging drainage projects planning in the Taihu Basin.
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