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中文摘要：
基于初等突变理论中的燕尾突变,主要考虑影响车辆脱轨的3个因素——脱轨系数、冲角和脱轨系数超限时间,建立车辆脱轨事故燕尾突变模型。结合该模型,讨论了燕尾突变发生的可能情形,通过燕尾突变模型的分叉集给出了车辆脱轨的临界区和脱轨区。利用Simpack软件,建立车辆动力学模型,验证这个方法的有效性。仿真结果表明：当脱轨系数、冲角和脱轨系数超限时间3个控制变量同时满足条件时,车辆就会发生脱轨事故。
英文摘要：
In this paper,three factors impacting the vehicle derailment which were the derailment coefficient,the attack angle and the derailment coefficient of overtime were mainly considered.Based on primary catastrophe theory,the vehicle derailment accident swallowtail catastrophe model was established.Combined with the swallowtail catastrophe model,the various situation were discussed.With the help of the bifurcation set of the model,the critical area and the area of train derailment were given.By the software Simpack,the vehicle dynamic model was set up to verify the validity of the method.The simulation result shows that the train will derailment only when the derailment coefficient,the attack angle and the derailment coefficient of overtime are all satisfied.
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