现有对技术变迁的研究大多关注的是技术进步。通过对技术变迁演化特征的分析可以发现,技术变迁过程中的停滞与退化是与技术进步并存的现象。理论分析和大量实例都表明,经济、社会、心理等因素都有可能导致技术变迁的停滞与退化。通过对这些因素的有效控制和利用,可以尽可能避免停滞和倒退的出现,从而走上良性的技术发展路径。
Most research about technology evolution is paying close attention to technology advancement. By analysis about the characteristic of technology evolution, the paper points out stagnation and degeneration coexist with advancemerit in technology evolution. Economic factors, social factors and mental factors may be lead to technological stagnation and degeneration. In order to avoid stagnation and degeneration as far as possible,we should try to control and utilize such factors,then technology may develop quickly.