应用跨国智力流动理论进行中国的产业结构分析,构建了人力资本系统与产业结构系统的耦合模型,推测国际智力回流与产业结构升级的相关性关系。并利用2000--2010年中国30个省级行政区的面板数据,采用动态面板广义矩估计(GMM)的方法就国际智力回流对产业结构升级的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:国际智力回流对中国产业结构升级具有较明显的促进作用,且促进效应在一定滞后期内显著提高;国际智力回流的教育引致效应显著,在一定程度上可以放大回流人才对产业结构升级的促进作用。
Designed a coupling model on human capital system and industrial structure system applying internation- al brain flow theory to the analysis of China's industrial structure. The coupling analytical model surmised that the international brain return had a high correlation with the upgrading of industrial structure. Further, we used Chinese 30-province panel data during 2000 and 2009, and preceded an empirical test about the effect of interna- tional human capital return on upgrading of the industrial structure adopting General Method of Moment. The em- pirical test revealed that international brain return significantly promoted the upgrading of industrial structure and the degree was increased in a certain lag period. In addition, the effect of causing education investment amplified the promotion of international brain return on the upgrading of industrial structure.