中文摘要：

对客户未来购买行为预测是客户终身价值评估、客户流失管理等研究领域的关键。近年来由于客户关系管理的兴起，Schmittlein等提出的Pareto／NBD模型作为在非契约条件下描述客户重复购买行为的基础模型得到关注和应用，但对该模型还缺乏实证检验。对Pareto／NBD模型的有关研究进行了简单的回顾，以某专业视频设备零售商近5年的客户购买数据作为样本，用最大似然法进行参数估计，对Pareto／NBD模型有关客户活跃度、客户未来购买期望等方面的预测性能进行实证检验。提出结合Pareto／NBD模型与购买金额期望模型计算有（无）购买历史客户的客户终生价值、根据客户终生价值设置客户流失预警点等方法。

英文摘要：

Having a good prediction on customer＇s buying behavior is the key to many studying sections, such as customer lifetime valuation （CLV） and customer defection management. The Pareto/NBD model was developed by Schmittlein et al. , to describe repeat-buying behavior in a non-contractual setting. Though Pareto/NBD model has caught the eyes of many researchers and been applied into several studies in recent years, the empirical studies are still rare. This paper makes a brief review concerning the applications of Pareto/NBD, and then using a customer database containing recent 5 years＇customer buying records from a professional video equipment retailer, it makes an empirical study on Pareto/NBD model by checking its prediction performance including the probability of a customer still alive at certain time and the expected purchasing frequency in the future. In the application section, this paper also proposes the ways combining Pareto/NBD and monetary value models to evaluate customer lifetime value for both customer with and without purchasing history, and how to set customer defection early warning point according to the CLV.