中文摘要：

据奇台县多年气象数据和农业生产资料,应用方差分析外推法、农业生态区域法等方法,分析了温度和降水的变化特征、光温水生产潜力与粮食实际单产的关系。结果表明：温度和降水的整体变化过程可分为冷、干时段（1970-1981）、过渡时段（1982-1999）和暖、湿时段（2000-2006）。预计今后平均温度（2007-2014年）5.84℃和平均降水量（2007-2013年）207.61mm,较上一周期将分别增加0.14℃和10.35mm。光温水生产潜力模型精度较高（精度达94%）,据此预测2007-2014年的粮食平均产量将达6338.25kg/hm^2。光温水生产潜力变化可划分为三个阶段：低增长阶段（1970-1981年）、加速增长阶段（1982-1999年）和平稳阶段（2000-2006年）。其中,第三阶段的光温水生产潜力为第一阶段1.88倍。在干旱区,水分有效利用率是提高粮食生产潜力最主要的因素。

英文摘要：

Based on the data of climate and agricultural production from 1970 to 2006 in Qitai County,the research analyzed the variation between temperature and rainfall,the relation of light-temperature-water potential productivity and grain yield by variance analysis,AEZ and so on.The results of research show that：the whole tendency of temperature and rainfall was divided into three phases：cold and dry（from 1970 to 1981）,transition（from 1982 to 1999）,warm and wet（from 2000 to 2006）.The temperature（2007-2014,5.84℃）and precipitation（2007-2013,207.61mm） will be increased to 0.14℃,10.35mm.The light-temperature-water potential productivity model with high precision and accuracy rate of 94%,the grain yield is 6338.25kg/ha from 2007 to 2014.The tendency of light-temperature-water potential productivity and grain yield was divided into three stages：low-increased（1970-1981）,accelerate-growed（1982-1999） and steady（2000-2006）.The third stage of grain yield and light-temperature-water potential productivity for the first phase were 2.09 times,1.88 times.In addition to,the first two phases of grain yield was lower than 315.83kg/hm^2 with light-temperature-water potential productivity.But the third stage was opposite,the former was more than 82.04kg/hm2 for the latter.