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中国股市已实现β系数的特征分析与建模研究
  • 期刊名称:王春峰,张亚楠,房振明,李晔,中国股市已实现β系数的特征分析与建模研究,北京理工大学学报(社会科学版
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:F830.9[经济管理—金融学]
  • 作者机构:[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072, [2]渤海证券博士后流动站,天津300061
  • 相关基金:国家杰出青年科学基金项目(70225002)
  • 相关项目:考虑市场噪音条件下资产均衡价格波动性估计方法与应用研究
中文摘要:

利用已实现波动方法对上海股市404只股票的周β系数进行实时估计,分行业对已实现周β系数进行了统计分析,结果表明,高科技行业的β系数同其他行业的β系数有显著性差异。探讨了股本与行业因素对不同模型预测β系数结果的影响,研究表明,平均绝对预测误差MAE和均方预测误差MSE表明预测精度有随着股本增大而减小的趋势,并且保守型行业预测精度要普遍好于高科技行业的预测精度。

英文摘要:

Realized betas of 404 stocks were measured by using the realized volatility in Shanghai stock market, and realized betas distributions were analyzed in different industries. The results suggest that realized betas of hi-tech industries were different from those of other industries. The performance of forecasting models were compared by the mean absolute forecasting error and the mean square forecasting error corresponding to market capitalization and industry. The results show that the forecasting abilities of models were better when the stock's market capitalization was higher and the models also worked well with the conservative industries.

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