基于广义人-机-环境复杂系统,对飞行人员可靠性、空中交通管制人员可靠性和航空器维修人员可靠性进行了分析,综合考虑常用可靠性评估方法的优缺点,采用贝叶斯网络建立了飞行安全人因可靠性的评估模型。该模型综合运用诊断推理和支持推理形式,分析直观,计算简便,适用于广义的人-机-环境复杂系统建模;同时该模型可以根据后验概率来调整先验概率,从而有效地提高了评估的精度。
Based on the man - machine - environment complex system, pilot reliability, air traffic control personnel and aircraft maintenance crew are analyzed. The virtue and disadvantage of reliability evaluation method are studied. A flight safety human reliability evaluation model is built by Bayesian Networks. For this model, diagnosis in- ference and sustaining inference are utilized. The analysis progress is intuitional and the calculating progress is con- venient. Thus the model is applicable to the men -machine -environment complex system modeling.