中文摘要：

分析了电传操纵系统可靠性，介绍了可靠性设计的工程方法。建立了飞行员排除故障的数学模型，提出了确定驾驶员排除飞行危险的条件概率的两种方法；在研究人-机闭环系统基础之上，建立了基于马尔可夫链的飞行安全评估模型，提出了由于飞行控制系统故障引起飞行危险的安全评估计算方法。最后以横向通道传感器故障为例对某型飞机进行安全评估。

英文摘要：

The reliability of Fly-By-Wire Flight Control System is been analyzed, and the engineering methods of reliability design are introduced. The model eliminating risk by pilot because of the failure of flight control system is established, and two methods calculating the conditional probability of eliminating risk are presented. Based on the study of the pilot-aircraft system, flying security model is built to apply Markov chains, and the calculation method of flying security evaluation for the control system failure is put forward . At last ,an example taking account of horizontal sensor fault is given to evaluate flying security of a plane.