中文摘要：

机翼结冰导致气动特性改变,为了定量分析机翼结冰导致的飞行风险,提出了利用人-机系统数值仿真数据进行概率评估的方法。考虑结冰对临界迎角、升阻特性等的影响,通过建立非线性动力学仿真模型和特殊情况下驾驶员操纵副翼偏转模型,实现了机翼结冰后的人-机系统动态仿真。分析了非指令控制滚转不正常现象,并通过影响因子的概率分布模型,最终实现了飞行风险概率评估。

英文摘要：

Wing icing results in the changes of aerodynamic characters. In order to quantitatively analyze the flight risk for wing icing, the probability assessment was proposed in which the simulation data of the pilot-aircraft-environment system was utilized. Considering the icing effects on critical attack of angle and lift-drag character, the nonlinear dynamic aircraft model and the aileron movement model manipulated by pilot in extreme condition were build up, and the dynamic simulation of the pilot-aircraft system was completed. The unusual phenomenon of un-command rolling was analyzed, and theflight risk probability was calculated by the probability distribution model of infection factors.