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中文摘要：
文章选取2008—2013年的面板数据，运用时变随机前沿引力模型估计中澳双边贸易效率和中对澳出口贸易效率，并测算前沿双边贸易潜力和出口潜力，最后从贸易通道、制度安排与合作领域三个角度提出对策建议。结果表明：人均GDP、自由贸易协定、有无共同语言对贸易流量有正向影响，人口、距离、有无边界、是否为内陆国家对贸易流量产生负向影响；2008～2013年中澳双边贸易效率值在0．8～0．9范围内。而出口效率值均在0．4～0．5之间，双边贸易效率明显高于出口效率，中对澳出口潜力远大于中澳双边贸易潜力。
英文摘要：
This paper selects the 2008-2013 panel data, and uses the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the efficiency of bilateral trade between China and Australia and the efficiency of China＇s exports to Australia. Then, it measures the potential of frontier bilateral trade and export. Finally, it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions. The results show that the three variables, such as the per capita GDP, the free trade agreement and common language, have a positive effect on trade flow, yet the four variables, including population, distance, boundary, and landlocked countries, produce a negative influence. In 2008-2013, the efficiency of bilateral trade value is within the scope of 0.8 to 0.9, and the value of export efficiency is between 0.4 and 0.5, that is, the bilateral trade efficiency is significantly higher than the export efficiency, namely, the export potential is greater than the bilateral trade.
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