将R/S分析方法引入用电量预测;并将R/S定性分析方法与GMDH定量预测方法结合,应用于成都市用电量预测。应用R/S分析方法从定性角度研究成都市历年用电量变化趋势的特性,得出成都市城市用电量Hurst指数;运用GMDH预测方法从定量角度对成都市近几年的城市用电量进行预测,进而验证Hurst指数所反映出的成都市用电量的增长趋势。
This paper introduced R/S method to the power consumption forecasting. It used both qualitative method which is R/S analysis and quantitative method which is GMDH to forecast the power consumption in Chengdu. This paper applied R/S analysis to research the growth character of the power consumption in historical year in Chengdu, and computed the Hurst index firstly. And then this paper used GMDH method to forecast the power consumption of Chengdu in recent years, and tested the growth of Chengdu' s power consumption furtherly.