中文摘要：

引入特定的宏观经济、金融和政策变量等控制变量后,本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴市场国家或地区的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响,以及近来众所关切的全球经常账户失衡问题。实证结果显示：东欧国家收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚国家或地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一。但若能够持续金融深化的努力,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲国家的宏观经济、金融和政策特征变量,对于资金流动方向并无决定性影响,但财政与货币政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。

英文摘要：

By introducing specific macroeconomic,financial and policy variables,in this paper,I try to make a test on the capital flow direction in East Europe,East Asia and Latin America and its effects on the economic growth,and the imbalance problem of global current account for recent years.The empirical result shows that the income level and financial deepening is still in a low level in East European countries,and with the increase of development level,the capital inflow would be shifted into outflow in future.The extra foreign exchange reserve,trade balance and capital outflow in East Asian countries and areas is one of the main reasons of American huge current account deficit and global current account imbalance.However,with the continuous hardworking of financial intensification,the capital can be possibly refluxed and can ease the imbalance problem of global current account.As for the macroeconomic,financial and policy variables of Latin American countries,it has no decisive effects on the capital flow direction,and fiscal and currency policy is still the key factors to determine whether capital flow is beneficial for economic growth.