中文摘要：

基于资本产出比，利用1995-2014年相关数据分析中国经济中高速增长，研究发现：1995-2007年中国经济增长基本上符合卡尔多经济增长的程式化事实，资本增长率与经济增长率保持3％左右的差距；2008年开始的政府4万亿投资并没有阻止经济的下滑，中国资本产出比增加的事实与发达国家长期趋于下降的趋势不吻合，是因为技术进步未能抵消资本边际报酬递减效应的结果，依赖大规模投资以保持经济稳定增长的道路已不可持续。因此保持一定的技术进步率，提高资本产出弹性，提高单位资本产出和资本回报率，是中国未来发展的不二选择。

英文摘要：

Based on the capital-output ratio ,the rapid growth of Chinese economy is analyzed by using 1995-2014 relevant data. The study found： China＇s economic growth from 1995 to 2007 is basically in line with Kaldor stylized facts ,and the difference between the capital growth and economic growth remains stable 3%. 4 trillion of government investment since 2008 did not offset the decline of the economy. The fact of the increment of China＇s capital output ratio is not consistent with the trend of long-run declining of the developed countries, the reason is the technical progress has not offset the effect of diminishing marginal returns of capital.The path which relies on large-scale investment to keep economic stable growth is not sustainable.Therefore, keeping certain technical progress rate, improving the output elasticity of capital and improving capital output per capita and capital returns are the only choice for China＇s future develop- ment.