首先介绍了技术轨道的概念与发展,以及S曲线方法在技术轨道研究中的应用与局限性。提出利用专利探讨行业技术轨道问题,并针对笔记本电脑电池领域进行了实证分析。行业技术轨道的关键问题在于预测当前技术的发展和未来替代技术的开端,为此有针对性地进行了三方面的分析:专利递增数量分析、技术更新速度分析、利益相关者分析。
The paper first introduces the concept of technological trajectory and the method of technological S - curve and its use in the study of technological trajectory. Noting the limitations of the method of S - curve, the paper introduces patent information, and conducts an empirical analysis based on the patent data about the battery industry. The key issue of industrial technological trajectory is to predict the outcome of the current battery technology and the beginning of the next alternative technologies, for which the paper conducts a three - facet analysis : analysis about increasing number of patents, analysis about technological updated velocity, and analysis about stakeholder.