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中文摘要：
提出通过观察技术发展阶段，利用专利引文及其所形成的网络识别技术轨道动态性变化的方法。该方法与不分时间阶段的静态技术轨道研究比较，突出了技术在发展过程中的动态性，提高了技术轨道上关键技术分析的准确性，可以更好地指导国家、地区和企业确定研发战略。结合太阳能电池技术所做的实证研究，不仅对技术轨道动态识别方法进行了说明，也对该技术的技术轨道变化过程做了详细描述，结果表明现阶段太阳能电池的基础技术轨道已相对稳定，但伴随应用发展中所出现的技术问题不断得到解决，路径在未来的发展过程中还会发生震荡变化，这也为我国企业提供了进入主流关键路径的机会。
英文摘要：
Propose a method which is through observing the technology development phases, and using patents citation and citation net- work to identify dynamic changes of technical trajectory. Comparing with the static technological trajectory studies which do not divide the time phase, this method highlights the dynamic nature of the technology in the development process, and improves the accuracy of the analysis of key technology on technological path. In addition, this method can be used to guide the countries, regions and enterpri- ses to determine the R ＆ D strategy. Combined with the empirical research of solar cell technology, it not only explains the dynamical identification method of technological trajectory, but also describes the process of technology changes in detail. The research result shows that the technical trajectory of solar cell is relatively stable now, but accompanied by the resolution of technical problems in the application process, the path will face major changes in the future, which provide the opportunity to enter the critical path of main- stream for Chinese enterprises.
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同项目期刊论文
Empirical research on the technology opportunities analysis based on morphology analysis and conjoin
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