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中文摘要：
预测了江苏省耕地供给变化趋势和耕地需求量。根据预测结果，对耕地供需平衡情况进行了判断，分析了不同的耕地集约利用水平、耕地种植结构对耕地供需平衡的影响耕地的供需状况。以此为依据，确定了区域粮食供应的优选策略。在此基础上，从区间估计的角度，探讨了耕地保有量的确定思路与方法，确定了江苏省规划期内不同时间阶段的耕地保有量区间，即到2010年耕地保有量应维持439．7-473．0万hm^2，2020年耕地保有量应维持420．8-458．4万hm^2。
英文摘要：
This paper estimated the trend of arable land supply and demand in Jiangsu Province. Aocording to the pre - estimated results of arable land supply and demand, this paper analyzed the equilibrium of cultivated land supply and demand. Furthermore, and analyzed the impact of land - use intensiveness and land - use structure on the balance between the cultivated land supply and demand. Different scenarios of cultivated land supply and demand were analyzed. Given that,the paper determined the optimization strategy of grain supply in Jiangsu Province. With the mode of interval estimation, this paper discussed the decision - making approach of the province - level stock of cultivated land, and made a trade - off between cultivated land supply and demand, and the stock range of cultivated land of different phase in Jiangsu Province were determined. The arable land stock range in 2010 and 2020 were respectively from 439.7 × 10^5 ha to 473.0 × 10^5 ha and from 420.8 × 10^5 ha to 458.4 × 10^5 ha.
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