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中文摘要：
在民航发动机性能预测问题的研究中，为提高民航发动机视情维修决策的自动化和智能化水平，针对性能衰退是影响航空发动机可靠性的关键因素等问题，在发动机的监测数据基础上，提出运用威布尔比例危险模型建立发动机性能预测模型，并考虑了带有截尾情况下的模型参数估计。然后以单位内预期平均成本最小化作为确定维修时间的约束目标，通过反复迭代过程计算出最佳监测时间和单位平均维修成本。最后以某型航空发动机进行了实例分析，验证了发动机拆换时间预测模型的准确性，对保证发动机的运行安全和有效地降低维修成本均具有一定的实际应用价值。
英文摘要：
In order to improve the automatic and intelligent level of civil aviation engine maintenance decision- making, considering the performance decline is a key factor influence of the aeroengine reliability, a performance prediction model is established based on the Weibull proportional hazards model and the engine health monitoring data. The circumstances with truncated model parameter estimation are taken into account. And then the unit is expected to minimize the average cost of repair time for determining the binding target. An iterative process is repeated to calcu- late the best monitor time and the average cost of maintenance. Finally, a certain type of aero-engine is analysed. The results verify the accuracy of the prediction model engine removal time. It has some practical value to ensure the safe and effective operation of the engine and to reduce its maintenance costs.
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