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中文摘要：
我国粮食产量在2007年再次超过5000亿蛞，供求矛盾有所缓解。但粮食安全的潜在性危机依然存在。本文分析了我国粮食安全的潜在性危机及其形成的原因：劳动力、耕地、水等粮食生产要素及资源供给的不可持续性；科技创新与推广滞后，对科技成果和科技人员业绩评价偏误，以致粮食生产发展得不到有效的科技支持；政府粮食补贴政策的局限性和效应的有限性，导致农民种粮的积极性不高；粮食需求扩张的刚性和用途多元化，引致的对进口的依赖性，及其可能产生的“经济租”和出口国的寻租行为，使供给具有了风险性和经济上的不利性。
英文摘要：
In 2007, China＇s grain yield surpassed half a trillion kilogram once more, which has eased the contradiction between supply and demand in a certain extent. However. the potential crisis of,food security still exists. This paper analysed the potential crisis of China＇ s food security and the causes of it：unsustainable supply of labor, land,water and other elements of food production and resources; the lag of technology＇s innovation and promotion, and,the bias evaluation of technology achievements and technology personnel s performance which leading to the ineffective technology support on the development of grain production; the limitations of government＇ s grain subsidy policies and its limited effect ,which didn＇ t do help to incentive farmers＇ enthusiasm for grain plant; for food＇ s rigid expansion of the demand and diversification purposes, the country should increase grain＇s import, which may produce ＂economic rent＂ and exporting countries＇ rent-seeking behavior, all of t.hese may increase the risks of supply and economic.
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