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中文摘要：
运用统计分析与计量分析相结合的方法，从农村居民直接和间接粮食消费对比的角度来分析我国农村居民粮食消费情况及其影响因素，可预测出我国农村居民未来20年的粮食消费量。研究结果表明，粮食价格和人均纯收入对粮食消费都有比较显著的影响；我国农村居民直接粮食消费量逐渐减少，间接粮食消费量逐步增加，并有超过农村居民直接粮食消费量的趋势。因此，有必要采用改善农村居民膳食营养结构和保障粮食安全的相应政策措施。
英文摘要：
By adopting the combined method of statistic analysis and quantitative analysis, this pa- per tries to analyze the situation of China＇s rural residents＇ food consumption and the affecting fac- tors from the perspective of comparison of rural residents＇ direct and indirect food consumption, so as to forecast the food consumption of rural residents in the future 20 years in China. The results show that both the price of food and net per capita income can significantly affect the food con- sumption; the direct food consumption of rural residents is decreasing while indirect food consumption is increasing, and very likely to exceed the direct food consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt relevant policy measures to improve food nutrient structure of rural residents and ensure the security of food consumption.
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