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珠江流域非平稳性降雨极值时空变化特征及其成因

ISSN号：0559-9350
期刊名称：水利学报
时间：2015.9.15
页码：1055-1063
分类：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
作者机构：[1]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275, [2]华南地区水循环和水安全广东普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275, [3]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目（51210013,51479216,51209095）; 国家科技支撑计划（2012BAC21B0103）; 水利部公益项目（201301002-02,201301071）; 广东省水利科技创新项目（2011-11）
相关项目：快速城市化地区土地利用变化对流域水文过程的影响模拟与预测研究

关键词：极端降雨, 时空变化特征, 非平稳性, 广义帕累托分布, 时变参数, 珠江流域, extreme precipitation, spatiotemporal variations, non-stationary, Generalized Pareto distribu-tion, time-varying parameters, Pearl River basin

中文摘要：

受全球气候变化和人类活动影响,珠江流域极端降雨事件发生的频次和强度均发生变化,变化环境导致极端降雨样本存在非平稳性。本文以珠江流域43个站点1960—2012年的日降雨数据为基础资料,通过分析广义帕累托分布（GPD）的参数时变特性及其空间分布规律,探索珠江流域非平稳性极端降雨的时空变化特征及其成因。结果表明：珠江流域极端降雨序列的极值指数呈从东到西逐渐减小特点,表征强降雨之间的相关性由东向西减弱;极端降雨变化程度大的区域其变化程度呈减弱趋势,而变化程度小的区域其变化程度呈加强趋势;珠江三角洲和东江流域南部、柳江流域东北部地区50/100年一遇的日降雨量级较大,而南盘江西部地区则较小。7个影响因子中,厄尔尼诺指标（SMEI）对流域的极端降雨影响最明显。非平稳时变超定量（POT）模型与平稳POT模型的结果比较表明,本文提出的时变POT模型较好地处理了珠江流域部分区域降雨存在的非平稳性特征。

英文摘要：

Due to global climate change and the growing impact of human activity, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin are changed, and the consistency of non-stationary extreme precipitation no longer be guaranteed under changing environment. This paper attempts to explore the spatiotemporal variations and the causes of non-stationary extreme precipitation using time-varying Gen- eralized Pareto distribution （GPD） based on daily rainfall of 43 sites during 1960-2012 in the Pearl River basin. The results show that the extreme value index of extreme precipitation sequence decreases gradually from east to west, which indicates that the correlations of the extreme precipitations reduce from east to west. The region with large variationof extreme precipitation at present tends to weaken, and on the con- trary, the region with small variation of extreme precipitation at present tends to strengthen. The amount of 50- and 100-years return period daily precipitation in the Pearl River delta, the southern of the Dongjiang River basin and the northeastern of Liujiang River basin is greater than that in the western region of the Nanpan River basin. The SME index of ENSO is the most significant factor of extreme precipitation among the 7 factors. The comparative result of the time varying POT model and stationary POT model shows that the time varying POT model of non-stationary proposed in this paper can better overcome the problem of non-stationarv characteristics in harts of the study basin.

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